Reading the Market Fit, Desirability, and Bubble Risk scores

Covent surfaces three scored signals on the Insights tab. They are different lenses on the same geography, and they're designed to be used together, not in isolation.

Market Fit Score (0 to 100, letter grade A to F)

A per-strategy score that answers: "Is this strategy workable here, right now?"

Computed separately for each strategy:

• Fix and flip. Based on buy-to-sell spread, profit margin %, days on market, and sample adequacy.
• Wholesale. Based on assignment-style profit patterns and time-to-assignment.
• Buy and hold. Based on rent-to-price, cap rate signals, and rent sample adequacy.
• Wholetail. A blended lane between flips and wholesale.

A score is only computed when underlying data is adequate:

• At least 100 properties in the broader market
• At least 15 strategy-specific transactions
• For buy and hold, at least 15 rent observations

Below those thresholds you'll see one of: Unavailable: market sample low, Unavailable: strategy sample low, Unavailable: rent sample low, or Partial.

Confidence - strong, medium, limited, unavailable - tells you how much weight to give the number. A "medium" B is not the same as a "strong" B.

Neighborhood Desirability Score (0 to 100)

A block-group level score that rolls up local livability signals: median household income, vacancy rate, owner-occupancy rate, employment rate, median age. High Desirability means the neighborhood is competitive and stable. Low Desirability means it trades on price alone.

Use Desirability to compare block groups inside a single county. Across counties the score is still directional but less meaningful.

Bubble Risk Score (0 to 100)

Also block-group level. Measures how much current pricing diverges from longer-run patterns. A high Bubble Risk score means appreciation is running hot, inventory is short, or sales are clearing at unusual spreads.

Use Bubble Risk as a counterweight to momentum-driven decisions. A high Market Fit score with a high Bubble Risk score means "good strategy fit now, but watch for correction". A high Market Fit with a low Bubble Risk is the cleaner opportunity.

How to use the three together

The three scores are best read as a stack:

1. Market Fit answers: should I run this strategy here at all?
2. Desirability answers: inside this area, which specific neighborhoods are strongest?
3. Bubble Risk answers: am I entering at a reasonable price, or chasing a top?

A common pattern for wholesalers: filter counties where fix-and-flip Market Fit is B+ or higher with Strong confidence, then inside those counties pick block groups with Desirability above the county average, then avoid block groups with top-quartile Bubble Risk. Run your investor searches inside that shortlist.

When a score is "unavailable"

Unavailable isn't failure: it's a signal. Most often it means the market doesn't have enough data yet to support a meaningful score. For thin markets, lean on manual comp analysis and your own network rather than a synthetic number.